Lighting export trend analysis
In the first half of 2025, China’s lighting industry exports faced overall pressure, but showed structural differences. This is attributed to multiple factors such as fluctuations in global market demand, adjustments in U.S. tariff policies, and the rise of emerging markets. Next, we will analyze these key trends in depth.
► Export resilience performance
In the first half of 2025, China’s exports of lighting products totaled about $25.8 billion, down 6% compared to the same period last year and hitting a nearly five-year low. However, it is worth noting that exports increased by 42% in June from a year earlier, thanks to early stocking behavior by U.S. importers spurred by signals of a temporary reprieve in U.S.-China tariff negotiations. In the longer term, the current export size is still 23% higher compared to the same period in 2019, further confirming that the current downtrend is more of a high level adjustment than an outright cliff fall. Therefore, despite the overall pressure, the export of China’s lighting industry still shows a toughness that should not be underestimated.
► Product mix optimization
LED modules are growing rapidly: exports are up to 4.2 billion units, a 77% surge over the same period last year, although the unit price has declined in the fierce competition, for example, the average price in the Pakistani market is only $0.0038 per unit.
Photovoltaic lighting is emerging: exports of photovoltaic LED luminaires grew by 25%, with continued strong demand in regions such as Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia.
The market for traditional light sources is shrinking: exports of incandescent and fluorescent lamps fell by 14% year-on-year, with only a short-term rebound in some low-end markets (e.g., Cambodia) due to restocking demand. Despite the short-term rebound in low-end markets, the overall trend is clearly in the direction of LEDs and photovoltaics.
► Regional market fragmentation
The U.S. market showed a significant downward trend: exports to the U.S. stood at $5.2 billion, down 16% year-on-year, with the share dropping from 24% to 22%, which was mainly attributed to the increase in tariffs to 45% and the pressure exerted by the localization of the supply chain. In order to avoid tariffs, some companies chose to manufacture in Southeast Asia (e.g. Thailand, Vietnam).
Continued growth in the EU and emerging markets: Exports to the EU achieved a 4% increase, with Germany growing by 9%. ASEAN and African markets also grew by 2% and 4% respectively. In addition, exports to countries along the “Belt and Road” route amounted to US$12.7 billion, a slight decrease of 2% year-on-year, but with a long-term trend of increasing share. The European Union and emerging markets such as ASEAN and Africa continued to grow.
► Price and tariff effects
Prices of high value-added products have risen: for example, the average export price of smart chandeliers to the United States has risen by 21%, while the unit price of photovoltaic LED lighting fixtures is as high as $24.69 per unit in Singapore.
Short-term relief from tariffs: China and the U.S. reached a 90-day tariff transition agreement in May, bringing tariffs on LED luminaires down from 67.5% to 55%. This move prompted companies to speed up shipments, however, the uncertainty remains in the long term. Prices of high value-added products such as smart luminaires have risen by 21%; the tariffs have eased in the short term, and the US-China tariff agreement has lowered LED tariffs, but long-term uncertainty remains.
►Future Outlook
Challenges: Uncertainty over U.S. tariff policies, continued reorganization of the global supply chain, and increasing price competition combine to create resistance to forward movement in the lighting industry.
Opportunities: The smart lighting sector, such as the deep integration of IoT technology, the rise of green energy products such as solar lamps, and the potential demand from emerging markets such as the Middle East and Africa, have brought new growth drivers to the industry. Looking forward to 2025 to 2030, the share of smart lighting in exports is expected to gradually increase from 35% to 52%. The industry faces challenges of tariff uncertainty, supply chain restructuring and price competition, but smart lighting and green energy products offer growth opportunities.
To summarize, in 2025, lighting exports are expected to show the trend of “slight contraction in total volume, continuous upgrading of product structure and reconstruction of sales regions”. Enterprises need to promote technological innovation (such as intelligent transformation), adjust the layout of production capacity (such as investment in Southeast Asia), and actively expand sales channels (including cross-border e-commerce and engineering orders and other diversified strategies).
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